Overturning Roe v. Wade could turn Texas blue

Everything is bigger in Texas. Including the distance required to drive to get a safe and legal abortion in the first trimester. But Texas Republicans may soon realize they, like Icarus, have flown too close to the sun.


With the United States turned on its head from the reversal of Roe V. Wade, many are pointing out the disproportionate effect it will have on several groups - mainly poor women and women of colour.


Thankfully, the New York Times has assembled a map of all abortion clinics in the country and the distance between each county and the nearest clinic. One area of the country has the distinct honour of being hit the hardest - South Texas.



The area with the highest concentration of this problem is not an area of solely uninhabited rural counties. This area includes Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The three metropolitan areas combined hold over 12 million people.


The one poll so far on the public's reaction to the news, done by YouGov, finds that 2/3 of women disapprove of the Supreme Courts' decision. Therefore, millions of angry women of childbearing age in that region will now have to drive hundreds of miles to get a first-trimester abortion.


Moreover, whites disproportionately favour the Supreme Court ruling, as the YouGov poll found that less than 1/3 of non-whites are in favour. According to the latest U.S. Census, Austin, Houston, and San Antonio combined are at least 2/3 non-white.


The current demographic trends of Texas are a living, breathing transformation of what used to be considered the Republican version of California. Putting every statewide election result since 2010 into a mathematical model reveals the state turning blue by about 2027, as shown in the video below.




But given that the Dallas metropolitan area is also a very dark shade of purple on the map, that adds millions more women of childbearing age who have been deeply angered in recent days.


This fall, Democrat Beto O'Rourke will be facing off against Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott for the governorship. In 2018, O'Rourke had the most successful attempt at a statewide blue Texas in recent years. He received 48.3% of the vote against Ted Cruz in a race for Senate.


In 2020, Donald Trump won Texas by less than a million votes. And although modern history is full of midterm failures for the incumbent president's party, most of modern history occurred after Roe V. Wade was law. This fall will also be the first election after January 6.