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As economic pessimism lingers, the U.S. stock market is up big over the past year. The 5-year growth is near 50%, while the 10-year growth is about 150%.


Global commodity prices stabilized almost a year ago, which is why inflation has been on the way down since the summer of 2022. Time will tell when the targeted 2% will come back.


After a devastating spike from the COVID pandemic of 2020, unemployment is down to near-record low levels, one of the biggest strengths of the American economy.

Interest Rate

Inflation has dropped, but not quickly enough for the Federal Reserve. If they raise the interest rate more, the consumption-driven U.S. economy will be more at risk for recession.

Economic Growth

There is no recession as long as there are not two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Growth rates over 3 percent are far from recession territory. 

Wage Growth

Wages in the United States grew at about 5% for most of the 2010s, but the growth rate has steadily declined from 15% since the COVID stimulus stopped. However, 7% wage growth is still impressive.


The decline in productivity over the past few years is arguably more worrisome than inflation. 10-year growth is an unimpressive 10%.

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