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Stocks

As economic pessimism lingers, the U.S. stock market is up, but only slightly over the past year. However, the 5-year growth is almost 50%, while the 10-year growth is about 150%.

Inflation

Global commodity prices stabilized almost a year ago, which is why inflation has been on the way down since last summer. Only time will tell us if the target 2% will be met before the end of the year.

Unemployment

After a devastating spike from the COVID pandemic of 2020, unemployment is down to near-record low levels, one of the biggest strengths of the American economy.

Interest Rate

Inflation is dropping quickly, but not quickly enough for the Federal Reserve. If they raise the interest rate more, the consumption-driven U.S. economy will be more at risk for recession.

Economic Growth

There is no recession as long as there are not two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This is good news considering there hasn’t been a negative quarter in over a year.

Wage Growth

Wages in the United States grew at about 5% for most of the 2010s, but the growth rate has steadily declined from 15% since the COVID stimulus stopped. 

Productivity

The decline in productivity over the past two years is arguably more worrisome than inflation. 10-year growth is just over 10%.

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